SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS AND FUTURE PROJECTION OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER IN THE GHOD RIVER BASIN (2001–2040)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65009/yn0bjq07Keywords:
The Ghod River Basin; Urbanization; Landsat; Accuracy Assessment; Land Use and Land Cover (LULC); Remote Sensing; GIS; CA-Markov Model; Maximum Likelihood Classification.,,Abstract
Understanding landscape dynamics and human consequences requires accurate evaluation of Land
Use and Land Cover (LULC) change. This study uses Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI imagery
to examine LULC patterns in the Ghod River Basin for the years 2001, 2014, and 2024. Confusion
matrices and Kappa statistics were used to validate the classification performance of Supervised
Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC). The 2040 LULC scenario was predicted using a
Cellular Automata–Markov model based on transition probabilities from multi-temporal data.
The results show important differences between land-cover classifications. Built-up areas are
expected to reach 473.15 km² by 2040, having increased from 293.99 km² in 2001 to 422.62 km²
in 2024. Increased anthropogenic stress and decreased ecological stability are reflected in the
ongoing decline of dense forests, vegetation, and water bodies. The 2040 landscape simulation
highlights additional natural cover fragmentation and is consistent with present development
trends. Overall, the work shows how well spatial modeling and remote sensing can be used to
assess landscape change and promote well-informed planning for land use.
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